Erdogan warns Israel’s Somaliland move could destabilise Horn of Africa
Immediate diplomatic ripples — During an official trip, President Erdogan cautioned that external recognitions and interventions risk inflaming already fragile ties across neighbouring states. His comments targeted a recent diplomatic move by Israel and were delivered alongside Ethiopia’s prime minister, signalling Ankara’s intent to shape the unfolding response. Somaliland’s foreign office swiftly urged Turkey not to add fuel to a tense situation, underscoring how recognition politics are producing instant diplomatic friction.
Ethiopia’s strategic pressure and sea-access diplomacy — Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed used the same platform to appeal for Turkish backing in Ethiopia’s longstanding effort to secure maritime options. He reiterated the push for access to nearby ports and asked for diplomatic support rather than confrontation, framing the matter as both an economic imperative and a geopolitical bargaining chip. Ankara’s response matters: it can either mediate and de-escalate or be seen as siding with one claimant, which would shift regional alignments.
Local instability and security risks — The remarks arrive as concerns mount over a possible resurgence of violence in the northern province of Tigray, where reports describe growing military deployments and civilian hardship. Financial services shortages and unpaid public wages have already worsened daily life there, creating a domestic pressure cooker that could be ignited by cross-border disputes. Short-term outcomes to watch include diplomatic protests from Mogadishu, intensified jockeying over port access, and the potential for renewed armed confrontations that draw in neighbours.
- Diplomatic: Increased bilateral friction between Ankara and pro-recognition states.
- Security: Higher risk of localised clashes near disputed borders and ports.
- Economic: Disruption to civilian services in conflict-affected areas.
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