Iran: Khamenei warns a US strike would ignite a regional war

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a stark warning that a US attack on Iran would reverberate across the region, underscoring Tehran’s stance that military coercion risks a far broader confrontation. The United States has visibly increased its regional footprint, including the redeployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and CENTCOM-ordered multi-day aviation exercises intended to validate dispersed operations and sortie generation. US officials frame the posture as calibrated deterrence and bargaining leverage; Tehran calls it escalatory coercion. Iranian authorities say back-channel message exchanges through friendly intermediaries have opened a limited negotiating pathway with Washington, though officials stress deep mistrust and set firm red lines, notably excluding discussions of ballistic missiles and defensive forces. The standoff is complicated by conflicting signals: Iranian outlets at one point announced naval drills that military spokespeople later downplayed, illustrating a mix of signaling, probing and information control on both sides. Domestically, a large security operation and subsequent deadly explosions have left many dead, and human-rights trackers report thousands killed in months of protests, while the rial has plunged to record lows, worsening shortages and public anger. Several Gulf partners have privately limited the use of their territory or airspace for offensive operations against Iran, constraining coalition options and shaping how exercises are conducted. Analysts warn that Iran’s asymmetric toolkit—including missiles, drones, small-boat swarms and mine-laying—would make any limited strike difficult to confine and increase the risk of proxy retaliation or maritime disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Turkey and other actors have offered to mediate, reflecting a narrow diplomatic window that hinges on rapid agreement on process and venue rather than immediate substance. The combination of forceful public rhetoric, discreet diplomacy and acute internal pressures creates a fragile equilibrium in which miscalculation, accidental incidents or escalatory domestic politics could expand the crisis beyond bilateral bounds. For markets and regional partners, the visible military posture and internal instability have already raised short-term risk premia on shipping and energy, prompting contingency planning and calls for urgent diplomatic engagement to reduce the chances of kinetic escalation.