Trump Issues Stark Warning to Iran’s Leader as Muscat Nuclear Talks Loom

U.S. and Iranian representatives are set to meet in Muscat for their first direct talks since last year’s strike that degraded parts of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, but the encounter arrives against a backdrop of intense signaling and risky maritime incidents. The White House paired a public admonition to Iran’s top leader with the visible deployment of a carrier strike group — including the USS Abraham Lincoln — and CENTCOM-ordered multi-day aviation exercises meant to validate dispersed operations. In a nearby sea episode, a Shahed-139 unmanned aerial vehicle that approached a U.S. carrier formation was shot down by an F-35C; hours later an Iranian-linked drone and fast boats intercepted a U.S.-flagged commercial tanker roughly sixteen nautical miles north of Oman’s coast, after which a U.S. warship escorted the vessel toward Bahrain. Tehran has indicated conditional willingness to engage but has insisted on reciprocal process work, precluding discussion of ballistic missiles and certain defensive forces. U.S. officials, by contrast, have signaled a broader agenda that could touch missile limits, proxy activity and human‑rights scrutiny beyond pure nuclear constraints. Earlier momentum from indirect contacts was interrupted by an Israeli strike and a subsequent U.S. action, complicating the pathway to a durable agreement. Domestically in Iran, a severe security crackdown, a near‑blackout of internet access and a plunging rial have heightened internal pressures and narrowed Tehran’s diplomatic options. Regional states and intermediaries have quietly urged restraint, warning that missteps could sharply raise insurance and routing costs for shipping and push energy markets higher. Private trackers and security firms have highlighted the practical difficulties of attribution at sea, where competing telemetry and state narratives make legal and diplomatic responses fraught. For now, the Muscat meeting opens a narrow window to convert deterrent posturing into concrete incident‑management measures — hotlines, clearer engagement rules or agreed maritime protocols — but such steps would need rapid, verifiable implementation to reduce the elevated risk of accidental escalation. Observers should watch the meeting’s scope, any verification language on nuclear material and facilities, linkage to missile and proxy issues, and immediate post-meeting military movements that will indicate whether talks soften tensions or merely pause dangerous encounters.