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Nationwide anti-government demonstrations in Iran have produced sharp divisions among Iranians at home and abroad over whether outside pressure — diplomatic, economic or military — would help. Independent imagery, partial restoration of internet access and a visible U.S. naval buildup have sharpened both the humanitarian toll and the geopolitical stakes.

Diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran have stalled after strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, elevating the risk of further military escalation and complicating verification. The 2015 limits-based agreement remains the reference, but weakened inspection access and hardened political positions make a swift return to that framework unlikely.

A US strike on Iran would still produce a range of outcomes from limited tactical degradation to broad regional instability; recent US force posture — including the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and CENTCOM aviation exercises — plus Tehran’s domestic crisis and a tumbling rial, have increased near-term miscalculation risk and already pushed a modest premium into oil and shipping markets.

Oil benchmarks rose after a U.S. carrier strike group and multi-day CENTCOM aviation exercises were deployed to the Middle East amid stern presidential warnings to Tehran; open-source satellite imagery and commercial trackers showed an expanded U.S. force posture. Markets priced a modest supply-and-transit risk premium—pushing Brent toward the high-$60s per barrel and U.S. crude near $63—while insurers and shippers began contingency planning.

President Trump publicly warned Iran that a substantial U.S. naval formation is en route and urged Tehran to accept a negotiated settlement on its nuclear activities to avoid a major strike. He invoked a prior U.S. operation that targeted Iranian nuclear sites and framed the deployment as both pressure and a ready military option.

U.S. and Iranian delegations met in Geneva on Feb. 17, 2026, for a second round of nuclear negotiations even as regional military activity — including stepped-up U.S. carrier movements and reported maritime incidents — raised the risk of a dangerous miscalculation. Diplomats continue to press technical verification and sequencing, while Tehran insists that reversible sanctions relief be part of any substantive trade‑off.

CENTCOM has launched multi-day air readiness drills across the Middle East and repositioned a carrier strike group amid rising tensions over Tehran’s internal crackdown. The deployment is intended to demonstrate dispersed operational capability and deter escalation, but it coincides with severe domestic unrest in Iran and a collapsing rial that together raise humanitarian, economic and escalation risks.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that any US military strike on Iran could spark a wider regional conflict as Washington reinforces its presence with a carrier strike group and multi-day aviation exercises nearby. At the same time, Iranian officials report discreet message exchanges with Washington and third-party offers to mediate, even as domestic unrest, deadly blasts and economic collapse intensify pressure on Tehran.