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A fragile normality in Tehran masks deep social trauma and heightened military tension after a deadly domestic crackdown and the arrival of U.S. naval forces nearby. The confrontation has compounded an economic collapse marked by a precipitous fall in the rial and widened the gap between public fear of reprisals at home and warnings of external action.
Authenticated video emerging from Iran shows large numbers of dead and active use of snipers and armed units against demonstrators amid a near-total internet blackout. Independent rights groups and state sources present sharply different casualty figures, complicating accountability and humanitarian response.
Iranian authorities have detained multiple senior reformist figures amid a sweeping effort to suppress dissent after mass January protests. The arrests come as an intermittent internet blackout and newly emerging visual evidence of lethal force complicate casualty verification, heightening international scrutiny while sensitive Iran–US talks continue in Oman.

After an extended nationwide blackout, limited connectivity has resumed in Iran under tight controls; the partial restoration coincides with a heavy security operation, foreign naval deployments and a collapsing currency, amplifying economic and political risks.

A prolonged economic collapse is the central catalyst behind Iran’s protests that began on Dec 28, 2025; activists assert a security crackdown has killed more than 7,000 people, though verification is hampered by an early‑January communications blackout and sharply divergent tallies from monitors and officials.

A US strike on Iran would still produce a range of outcomes from limited tactical degradation to broad regional instability; recent US force posture — including the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and CENTCOM aviation exercises — plus Tehran’s domestic crisis and a tumbling rial, have increased near-term miscalculation risk and already pushed a modest premium into oil and shipping markets.

Relatives of a 37-year-old demonstrator say security forces shot him in Lahijan during January protests and later pressured the family to pay for the bullet that killed him. Visual material and monitoring groups document crowded mortuaries, rooftop shooters and other indicators of widespread lethal force, while internet blackouts and sharply divergent casualty tallies complicate independent verification and intensify diaspora activism.

A policy rift inside the U.S. government has delayed funding for large‑scale deployment of virtual private networks and other circumvention tools aimed at reaching roughly a quarter of Iran’s population amid prolonged, state‑controlled internet disruptions. The dispute over technical approach, legal exposure and secure delivery comes as Iran’s connectivity remains erratic and tightly rationed, increasing economic and human‑rights stakes for delayed action.