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The U.S. operation that removed Nicolás Maduro has produced a sharp split in Houston between relief among exiles and skepticism from workers and veterans, even as national polls show more disapproval than support. Washington’s follow-up moves—including a reported $500 million sale of formerly sanctioned barrels routed to U.S.-overseen accounts, incremental embassy reengagement and plans for a limited intelligence footprint—have amplified both economic hopes for Venezuelan oil and worries about legal, humanitarian and geopolitical costs.

Senior U.S. officials have been explicitly mining lessons from Washington’s post-2003 role in Iraq’s petroleum sector to shape a more interventionist approach to Venezuela’s oil complex. Early actions include routing previously sanctioned barrels through U.S.-managed sales (roughly $500 million in the initial transaction) and using those proceeds under tight conditions for transitional fiscal needs, but legal, political and banking frictions — plus plans for an on-the-ground intelligence presence and draft domestic energy reforms — complicate any quick recovery.

A U.S. operation that removed Nicolás Maduro has left Venezuelans balancing dread and guarded optimism as interim authorities open the oil sector and Washington moves to reestablish a limited on‑the‑ground presence. Short‑term liquidity measures — including a reported ~$500 million sale of previously sanctioned barrels routed through U.S.-managed accounts — and congressional changes to hydrocarbons law create openings for investment, but structural constraints and political mistrust make any recovery fragile.

Former President Donald Trump publicly indicated he would not oppose Chinese or Indian investments in Venezuela’s petroleum industry, framing such capital as potentially beneficial for output and global energy supplies. His remarks add rhetorical cover for Asian investors but stop short of policy changes — concrete investment will hinge on legal reforms, sanctions relief, and financial mechanisms that are still unresolved.

Senior U.S. intelligence planners are preparing to establish a sustained on-the-ground footprint in Venezuela to shape post-Maduro governance and secure strategic interests. The CIA will lead early security and liaison activities while the State Department prepares a phased diplomatic return, though White House objectives and timelines remain unclear.

Laura F. Dogu’s arrival in Caracas is a visible first step in a deliberate, two-track U.S. strategy that pairs increased coercive pressure with a phased diplomatic reengagement. Her presence accompanies plans for a small intelligence foothold, conditional U.S.-managed oil sales that route dollars through U.S. accounts, and a cautious push to restore consular and commercial ties amid legal, security, and political risks.

Senior U.S. officials will tell lawmakers that military options remain available if Venezuela’s interim leaders do not meet U.S. demands, even as Washington moves to normalize relations by increasing embassy staffing and welcoming recent prisoner releases. Behind the public posture, U.S. planners are also preparing a covert intelligence footprint to vet new leaders, gather actionable reporting, and shape conditions for a broader diplomatic and commercial return.

U.S. officials told reporters that cyber tools were used to disrupt Caracas power and degrade air-defense radars during the January 3 extraction of President Nicolás Maduro. Analysts say the episode underscores how degraded energy infrastructure and multi-domain tactics magnify the effects of limited digital intrusions.