U.S. Intelligence Moves to Build a Permanent Presence Inside Venezuela

U.S. intelligence apparatuses are plotting a durable presence inside Venezuela in the wake of Nicolás Maduro’s removal, prioritizing influence and situational control during an unsettled political transition. Planners envision an initial covert operating node to provide security, gather actionable reporting, and open channels with Venezuelan security services and emergent leaders before a formal diplomatic mission is reintroduced. The arrangement would assign early-risk tasks to intelligence officers—liaison, threat assessments, and classified briefings on external actors—while career diplomats map a slower, public-facing path back to embassy operations. U.S. officials intend to use on-the-ground capabilities to vet the new leadership’s intentions, limit adversary footholds, and shepherd opportunities for economic engagement, including energy-sector reopening. Those goals are complicated by the absence of a clearly defined White House mandate, forcing planners to build a footprint first and refine mission objectives later. Historical and operational analogues guide the approach, but Venezuela’s domestic politics and public attitudes toward foreign intelligence activity create unique second-order risks. A visible intelligence role risks fueling local resentment or nationalist backlash; a delayed or inadequate diplomatic presence would undermine accountability and reconstruction oversight. Interagency coordination will hinge on carefully declassifying and sharing intelligence with Venezuelan counterparts without compromising sources or methods. The pace and scope of any embassy resumption will be constrained by security conditions in Caracas, the physical state of diplomatic facilities, and the ability of the U.S. to protect non-combat personnel. The CIA’s prior clandestine activity inside the country provided operational advantages during the regime change and now positions the agency as the primary actor during the re-entry phase. For now, tactical priorities center on establishing secure liaison networks, delivering vetted intelligence about third-party powers, and shaping an environment conducive to U.S. diplomatic and commercial aims. Policymakers face a choice between rapid assertive engagement to lock in gains and a more cautious, legitimacy-focused strategy that minimizes audience costs. The path the administration selects will determine whether U.S. presence stabilizes Venezuela’s transition or becomes a focal point for domestic and international contestation.