Context and chronology

Between Feb 15 and Feb 20 a concentrated program of loadings departed Kharg Island, registering about 20.1 million barrels in aggregate. That volume is roughly a 3x uplift versus the same calendar window in January and equates to an average above 3 million barrels per day across the shipment span — a tempo unusually high for the terminal.

The operational pattern was clustered into short departure windows rather than a steady flow, consistent with purposeful front‑loading or onshore inventory drawdowns. Commercial trackers and satellite‑based monitorers noted the compressed cadence just as open reporting flagged an enlarged U.S. military footprint in the Gulf — including redeployment of a carrier strike group and multi‑day aviation exercises — which market actors treated as an immediate risk driver.

Market reactions were layered. Prompt physical differentials tightened, time‑charter and spot freight indications surged as VLCC and other tanker owners reaped outsized earnings, and insurers began to price higher war‑risk and perimeter surcharges for Persian Gulf transits. Brent futures rose into the high‑$60s and U.S. light crude moved toward the low‑$60s as traders absorbed both headline risk and the real friction of longer voyages and constrained tonnage pools.

Structural frictions amplified the impact. Sanctions‑driven re‑routing of Venezuelan and redirected Russian barrels, plus increased use of mainstream tonnage for these flows, have already tightened available capacity — a backdrop that made Kharg’s burst loadings more market‑sensitive than they would be in looser conditions. Brokers reported longer voyage days and greater demand for floating storage, while refiners and traders scrambled to secure secure multi‑month tonnage to avoid spot volatility.

Incidents at sea added to uncertainty. Private maritime security reporting documented an approach to a U.S.‑flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz that required a U.S. surface escort; Iranian state channels disputed aspects of the account. The divergence — commercial telemetry versus official statements — underscores how attribution and legal framing of maritime encounters can differ materially and complicates insurers’ and charterers’ operational responses.

Operational constraints at Kharg itself — limited berthing, shore storage and single‑point loading capacity — will cap how long such elevated sortie rates can be sustained without congestion. Which buyers take cargoes, how insurers set exclusions, and whether regional basing and routing constraints persist will determine if the episode is a short defensive burst or the start of a prolonged pattern that re‑prices logistics costs.