Rocket Launches Could Erode Ozone Recovery, New Modeling Warns
Key findings from atmospheric modeling of commercial launches
New atmospheric simulations presented by researchers connected to the University of Canterbury show that accelerating orbital activity is not climate-neutral: under a high-growth scenario of roughly 2,000 launches per year, modeled changes to the upper atmosphere include about 3% loss in stratospheric ozone and localized warming of the lower stratosphere by around 0.5°C.
The study attributes most chemical damage to emissions from chlorine-bearing solid rocket stages, while soot and other light‑absorbing particulates in exhaust plumes amplify heating and dynamically alter wind patterns that influence storm tracks and precipitation distribution. Those mechanistic links tie launch emissions directly into processes that meteorologists use to predict seasonal circulation.
Separately, conference assessments indicate that the mass of human-made material reaching the upper atmosphere via re‑entries has approximately doubled in five years to nearly 1 kiloton per year, with engineered metals such as lithium now exceeding natural meteoric inputs for some species. That shift makes near-space a growing vector for chemical and particulate perturbations traditionally associated with ground-based pollution.
Researchers are reframing orbital and near‑space operations as an environmental externality: what once felt like a shared, unused domain now imposes measurable costs on the wider climate system. Several scientists at the meeting argued that delays in policy or design changes could close the window for easy mitigation, urging earlier incorporation of emission controls and alternative propellant strategies into commercial deployment plans.
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