US imports from Taiwan overtake China amid tariff-driven realignment

A rapid reconfiguration of US sourcing surfaced at year-end: American purchases from China collapsed, while imports from Taiwan climbed to a new monthly lead. The Commerce Department's latest trade release shows a pronounced drop in Chinese shipments alongside a steep rise in Taiwanese deliveries — a divergence that coincided with tariff policy changes, a U.S.–Taiwan trade arrangement that eased near-term frictions, and a surge in demand for AI-related technology.

The shift is concentrated in technology-heavy categories. Chip and electronics components tied to artificial‑intelligence development made up a meaningful share of the Taiwan increase, as hyperscalers and cloud customers accelerated orders for accelerators, memory and advanced packaging capacity. Taiwanese foundries and packaging/test firms reported fuller order books, and at least one major contract chipmaker lifted capital‑expenditure guidance after verifying larger cloud orders.

Policy moves altered commercial incentives. Elevated U.S. levies on a swath of Chinese goods, combined with a newly finalised bilateral arrangement that linked tariff relief to investment commitments in the United States, lowered the cost and regulatory friction of sourcing from Taiwan. That suite of measures encouraged near‑term rerouting of shipments rather than an instantaneous collapse in overall demand.

Supply‑chain managers said they redirected orders and adjusted inventories to limit tariff exposure and secure scarce components. Some firms described these as tactical diversions; others signalled longer‑term vendor shifts reinforced by Taiwanese firms' announced U.S. expansion plans and faster capex deployment.

• December data show a sharp year‑over‑year decline for Chinese shipments and a greater‑than‑doubling of Taiwan shipments, leaving Taiwan the top monthly U.S. supplier.
• AI‑driven demand for semiconductors and packaging/test services is a primary driver of Taiwan’s export surge to the United States.
• A U.S.–Taiwan trade arrangement that eased certain tariff frictions — conditioned on investment pledges — materially influenced near‑term sourcing decisions.

The reallocation raises strategic trade questions. Greater U.S. reliance on Taiwan for critical components intensifies concentration risk in a geopolitically sensitive node, even as it provides short‑term relief for technology supply chains. Taipei has welcomed targeted investment and market access incentives but pushed back against political objectives that would try to relocate a large share of the island’s semiconductor ecosystem on an accelerated timeline, arguing that upstream materials, tooling and specialized suppliers cannot be shifted quickly.

Market implications are uneven: technology buyers in the United States gain nearer‑term access to AI‑critical parts, while Chinese exporters face steep revenue pressure that could prompt diplomatic and commercial responses. Investor flows have already rotated toward Asian semiconductor suppliers and AI‑infrastructure vendors, reinforcing demand signals that feed back into Taiwanese capex plans.

Analysts caution that some of the headline strength reflects cyclical and base‑effect dynamics and that expansion risks—permitting, talent constraints, equipment backlogs and the concentration of suppliers—could limit how quickly broader segments of the value chain relocate. Policymakers and procurement teams will watch subsequent monthly trade releases and company capex disclosures to determine whether December was an inflection point or a transitory distortion.