China's factories and ports hum before Lunar New Year as tariff fears fade

Manufacturing hubs across southern China moved into high gear in the weeks ahead of the Lunar New Year as buyers accelerated orders to meet holiday-related shipping windows. Factories that had paused or delayed programs amid last year’s tariff volatility report near-capacity production and a renewed willingness among overseas clients to place new orders. The pre-holiday surge produced sharp congestion at major terminals, with container volumes and booking demand spiking well above year-ago levels. Analysts tracking port throughput recorded a roughly 40% year-on-year rise in containers handled during the week ending Feb. 1, a reading that stands out against the previous year’s patterns. Trucking networks also felt the strain; congestion lifted local road freight charges substantially, with some market participants citing an 80% jump in truck rates. Container freight benchmarks from Shanghai moved into a higher band in early January, breaching ranges that historically mark seasonal peaks and signaling that shippers pulled forward shipments earlier than usual. Air and ocean freight indices showed parallel strength, with short-term uplifts on lanes to the U.S. and Europe and a weekly rise in Pudong outbound rates. Part of the intensity reflects calendar timing: the Lunar New Year falling later this cycle encouraged heavier pre-holiday front-loading than in the prior year. Beyond timing, the move follows a thaw in trade frictions after recent diplomatic engagement, which reduced some of the immediate tariff uncertainty that had prompted buyers to pause investments and product launches. At the same time, multinational firms continue to pursue “China-plus-one” strategies and regional near-shoring, but these shifts are complementing rather than replacing China-based sourcing for many sectors. The immediate economic effect is visible in higher short-term revenues for manufacturers and logistics providers, but the episode also underscores persistent structural exposure: global buyers can and do shift sourcing strategies over time, yet for now China remains central to many product supply chains. Looking ahead, if tariff tensions remain eased and capacity bottlenecks are resolved, the current spike could translate into steadier export flows; conversely, renewed policy shocks or prolonged congestion would quickly reverse the near-term gains seen this season.