Russia trims oil drilling in 2025 as financing pressures mount

Output risk and industry impact

Drilling activity cooled sharply in 2025, creating a tangible downside risk to crude volumes later this year. Operators recorded roughly 29,140 km of production well footage for the year, a pullback from 2024, and management teams shifted spending away from expansionary programmes toward maintenance and the highest‑return reservoirs. That reallocation limits the risk of a steep short-term production collapse but makes year‑on‑year growth unlikely without a sustained improvement in export conditions or higher global prices.

Measured slowdown and timeline

Activity accelerated early in the year but lost momentum during the middle months and weakened further into December, when single‑month footage fell about 16% versus the prior December and full‑year footage was down roughly 3.4% year‑on‑year. The pattern suggests companies cut discretionary drilling late in the season as cash‑flow pressures became more acute and as logistical frictions raised the marginal cost of keeping rigs mobilised on lower‑margin prospects.

Revenue squeeze and market frictions

The drilling slowdown intersects with a broader revenue squeeze: receipts from crude exports have weakened to levels not seen in several years because of Western sanctions, seaborne price caps, deeper discounts on some grades and a stronger ruble that reduced local‑currency conversion of foreign sales. Parallel operational frictions — suspended pipeline deliveries to Central Europe, damage to some refinery hubs and longer maritime routing — have pushed more crude onto seaborne liftings but have also increased freight and insurance costs and narrowed headline export realizations.

Buyer dynamics and logistical costs

Commercial signals from major buyers matter: comments from an Indian minister suggest New Delhi may scale back purchases of discounted Russian barrels, removing an important outlet that helped to offset sanctions‑era losses. Reduced uptake by big buyers would likely force steeper discounts, more aggressive outreach to alternative markets or structural changes to contracts and logistics — all of which would further compress producer margins and the budget envelope for drilling.

Short‑term outlook

With export receipts under pressure and higher effective transport and compliance costs, producers are expected to prioritise capital discipline and defer lower‑margin projects through 2026. Policymakers may face pressure to consider fiscal incentives or targeted measures to stabilise drilling activity if energy tax revenues fall materially. Absent a sustained rally in export prices, easing of sanctions-related frictions, or a reversal in buyer behaviour, the near‑term arithmetic points to constrained capex and flattened output trajectories.