
Putin’s war finances tighten as peace negotiations restart
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Russia's economy slides into structural depletion amid prolonged war
After five years of sustained military operations, Russia’s economy has shifted from resilience to prolonged attrition as policymakers prioritise the war effort over productive investment. A widening fiscal squeeze — driven by weaker crude receipts, reserve drawdowns, heavier borrowing and rising unit costs for equipment — compounds technology embargoes and demographic pressures, locking the economy into low growth unless there is a major policy or external shift.

Estonian intelligence warns Russia is using peace talks to advance war aims
Estonian foreign intelligence concludes Moscow’s recent conciliatory language toward negotiations is tactical and aimed at consolidating battlefield and political gains rather than signaling a genuine halt to operations. The assessment comes as a public split among senior Estonian officials over engagement strategy risks sending mixed signals to NATO partners and Moscow, complicating allied policy responses.
European capitals tighten scrutiny as Russian battlefield losses reshape recruitment tactics
European authorities are increasing investigative pressure on the channels that funnel recruits and manpower into Russia’s military effort, expanding tactics to include pressure on transport and financial service providers. By warning carriers, insurers and payment intermediaries and combining migration, banking and open-source casualty data, officials aim to raise the operational cost of moving fighters and funds while preserving legal protections for migrants.

Naftogaz asks U.S. financing to rebuild plants damaged by Russian strikes
Ukraine’s state energy company has put forward a multimillion-euro reconstruction request to cover widespread war damage and urgent equipment replacement. The damage tally reaches roughly €3 billion with equipment needs alone near €900 million, prompting appeals for international financing and fast-track procurement.

Russia’s oil revenues slump amid sanctions and a weaker ruble
Russia’s income from crude sales has dropped to its lowest level in roughly five years as export restrictions, price caps and the ruble’s depreciation reduce proceeds. A recent indication that India may pare back purchases of discounted Russian crude would amplify those pressures by tightening a key outlet for sanctioned barrels.

China deepens backing for Russia’s Ukraine campaign, Western agencies warn
Western intelligence judges Beijing increased material and diplomatic support for Moscow across 2025 and that coordination is likely to broaden in 2026, but Beijing’s approach remains pragmatic and calibrated. The shift — centred on approvals, third‑party routing and financial layering — constrains European leverage, complicates sanctions enforcement and heightens the need for allied chokepoint controls and intelligence sharing.

Putin Meets Syria’s Interim Leader as Moscow Eyes Long-Term Military Footprint
Syria’s interim president traveled to Moscow for high-level talks that center on Russia’s desire to secure and formalize its coastal military facilities. The meeting signals Moscow’s intent to maintain strategic footholds in the eastern Mediterranean while Damascus seeks security guarantees and reconstruction support.

US aims for a June resolution as strikes cripple Ukraine’s power network
U.S. envoys have invited Kyiv and Moscow to talks on U.S. soil with a compressed timetable that aims to reach a settlement by June, Kyiv says. The diplomatic window opens as intensified Russian strikes — including a large combined drone-and-missile assault hitting Kyiv, Dnipro and Odesa — further damaged substations and thermal plants, forcing rolling outages, emergency requests for power from Poland and urgent international offers of materiel support.