Delcy Rodríguez consolidates interim rule as US leverage centers on oil and security
Delcy Rodríguez has consolidated a provisional governing role by combining pro‑Chavista messaging with rapid, pragmatic policy changes meant to reduce international friction and unlock constrained oil revenues. Caracas has moved to rewrite hydrocarbons rules to allow private or mixed investment and has installed technocratic personnel to manage commercial interfaces — a visible bid to reassure investors and U.S. interlocutors while retaining symbolic deference to the revolutionary base.
On the economic front, Washington has already allowed at least one sale of previously sanctioned barrels — reported at roughly $500 million — with proceeds placed in accounts overseen by U.S. authorities as a conditional liquidity mechanism. Rodríguez’s team has publicly mentioned a larger headline deliverable of 50 million barrels as a potential monetization pool, but that figure sits against a much lower operating baseline: Venezuelan output at the time of the operation was near 800,000 barrels per day, meaning substantial technical rehabilitation and capital will be required to translate promises into sustained exports. U.S. officials are simultaneously pursuing a phased diplomatic presence — temporary consular services and limited embassy staffing — and an initially small intelligence liaison to vet emergent actors and manage security risks.
Domestically, Rodríguez’s survival depends on keeping key security actors and Chavista grassroots aligned. The interim administration has used limited, targeted measures — including the early release of selected political detainees and personnel moves that favor managers over ideologues — to blunt opposition and international concern. Still, figures who command armed forces and irregular militias retain coercive power and a stake in resource rents; tensions between placating those networks and meeting U.S. conditions create an ongoing bargaining problem. High‑value sanctions targets and outstanding bounties (including a reported $25 million on a senior security figure) underscore the reputational and legal risks that underpin many investor calculations.
The immediate macroeconomic picture is mixed. Routing dollars through U.S.-managed accounts increases on‑the‑ground cash availability, and dollarized transactions have widened, but Venezuelan banks cannot yet intermediate dollars into savings or long‑term credit. Wages and pensions remain effectively bolívar‑indexed, creating a mismatch between incomes and prices that limits widespread purchasing‑power gains. Basic goods remain far out of reach for many households: the basic food basket is reported at $526.83 (2025), poverty measures remain extreme, and migration flows continue to shape social pressures.
International actors see leverage on both sides. The U.S. can use controlled access to markets, legal protections and conditional dollar flows to extract commitments; Rodríguez can threaten discontinuities that would damage global oil flows or unravel fragile elite pacts. The short‑term outlook is conditional: success requires measurable increases in export revenues, credible transparent revenue management, assurances to military stakeholders, and visible improvements in affordability. Absent those, the arrangement risks nationalist backlash, capture of benefits by a narrow elite, or renewed unrest.
- Initial U.S.-managed sale: ~$500 million in proceeds routed to U.S.-overseen accounts
- Oil delivery commitment (announced): 50 million barrels (headline figure, subject to technical and political constraints)
- Reported production baseline: ~800,000 b/d at time of operation
- Reported poverty rate: 86% (2024)
- Migration since 2014: 7.9 million (with 6.5 million registered by UNHCR)
- Basic food basket cost: $526.83 (2025)
- Bounty on a senior security figure: $25 million
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