Saudi Aramco boosts March crude allocations to China after deep Asia price cut

Saudi Aramco redirected a notably larger share of its March-loading shipments to China after setting its official selling price for Asia at the weakest level seen in more than five years. Traders tracking term nominations and spot loadings estimate March allocations to Chinese buyers at around 56–57 million barrels, up from 48 million barrels in February — an incremental increase of roughly 8–9 million barrels or about 17–19% month-on-month. Market participants say the move is tactical: by compressing Asia differentials Aramco makes its barrels more attractive to refiners facing squeezed margins and elevated crude inventories. The cheaper official selling price relieves short-term procurement pressure for Chinese refiners, supporting higher runs and the potential for stronger product volumes and exports if domestic demand and logistics permit. At the same time, the cut signals Riyadh’s willingness to sacrifice near-term per-barrel revenue in favour of preserving or expanding market share across Asia. Competing Middle Eastern and non-OPEC exporters now face commercial pressure to match discounts or risk losing customers, raising the prospect of wider regional price undercutting if rivals respond. The extra barrels flowing into Asia are expected to shift VLCC and Suezmax scheduling, tightening available freight tonnage on some routes and prompting volatility in charter rates. Traders will watch benchmark spreads and futures for signs that the market psychology is moving from tightness toward surplus as inventories accumulate. For consumers in importing countries any relief at the pump is likely to be modest and contingent on how long discounts persist. In the medium term, persistent price undercutting could erode revenues for higher-cost producers and feed into OPEC+ deliberations on output settings and fiscal trade-offs for producer states. Key near-term indicators to monitor are China’s refinery throughput, VLCC freight levels, regional differentials to benchmarks, and stock movements at major storage hubs — all of which will show how quickly markets absorb the redirected volumes and whether the tactic sustains Aramco’s share gains.