China leans on services; winter-sports boom used to pilot stimulus shift

Beijing is reorienting parts of its stimulus strategy toward the services sector, treating the rapid expansion of winter-sports infrastructure as an early pilot to catalyse consumer spending. Authorities are pushing new facilities, events and linked services across tourism, healthcare, education, childcare, medical tourism, yachting and the evening leisure economy to make consumption a more reliable growth engine. Local pilot areas report tangible results: Wanlong resort near Chongli drew about 600,000 visitors this year, employing roughly 1,200 staff and turning a second consecutive profit, while Chongli’s economy has averaged near 6.5% annual growth over the past five years.

The policy nudges are now backed by clearer signals from the centre: state media and party outlets indicate that senior leadership wants internal demand to play the primary role in near-term growth, and guidance published in the party journal has increased expectations that ministries will act in concert. Agencies such as the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the People’s Bank of China are likely to align credit, targeted fiscal transfers and regulatory tweaks — including consumption incentives and project acceleration — to support chosen service sectors.

Planners and state media project the broader winter-related market to expand from 1 trillion yuan in 2025 to 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030, while per-capita spending on services remains low by advanced-economy standards — about 46.1% of total spending in 2025 versus roughly 70% in the United States — a gap the stimulus push is intended to narrow. Short-term wins from visible projects include higher local wages: some ski instructors earn around 10,000 yuan monthly and taxi drivers in winter hubs report notable income lifts.

Analysts caution that the central push will need stricter targeting and clear demand-side complements to avoid repeating past supply-led mismatches. Heavy public-led expansion can create assets that sit below breakeven if household incomes and private confidence do not rise in step, and local government debt and property-sector fragilities limit how rapidly stimulus can be scaled. Several provinces — including Jilin, Hebei, Henan and Hainan — have announced sector-specific programmes, though many have yet to disclose funding or utilisation targets, leaving implementation risks.