U.S. reefer rates jump as Arctic cold and immigration enforcement tighten driver supply

An abrupt rise in demand for temperature-controlled trailers this winter, combined with shifts in driver availability, has pushed refrigerated truck prices upward and strained capacity for time-sensitive freight such as Valentine’s Day flowers. Shippers moving perishable goods scrambled for reefers as freezing conditions created urgent needs to keep cargo from cold damage, while some carriers curtailed long-haul activity amid enforcement actions targeting immigration and licensing compliance. The immediate outcome is a noticeable uptick in market clearing rates: nationwide spot linehaul prices for reefers moved above recent lows and showed year-over-year gains in January, and certain gateway lanes out of South Florida surged far more sharply. Smaller carriers and brokers reported paying materially more to secure trucks for short seasonal runs, and one regional operator said payroll costs rose substantially for a tranche of newly hired drivers to cover peak demand. Industry analytics firms logged an ongoing net decline in active heavy-duty drivers since the market peak in early 2023, a trend that enforcement and bankruptcies appear to have accelerated. Some large shippers responded by seeking longer-term contracts, a tactical shift interpreted by fleet executives as an early sign that buyers expect sustaining rate pressure. Yet freight demand across manufacturing and construction remains weak, leaving open the possibility that the current pricing dynamic is temporary and primarily weather-driven. Trade groups and legal advisers also report that heightened immigration scrutiny has discouraged some drivers from crossing state lines, further tightening available capacity on key lanes. For carriers with available reefers and compliant drivers, the current environment improves utilization and pricing power; for shippers it raises short-term logistics costs and complicates seasonal planning. Analysts warn that the market will require several weeks of data to determine whether this episode marks the start of a broader recovery or a transient distortion tied to cold weather and enforcement actions. Policy and enforcement developments will be material to capacity planning, as will the pace at which dormant or sidelined trucks reenter the market. In short, the refrigerated trucking segment is experiencing a concentrated supply shock that benefits carriers in the near term but may not signal a durable rebound absent stronger underlying freight demand.