Goldman Sees U.S. IPO Fundraising Surging to About $160 Billion in 2026

Goldman Sachs forecasts a pronounced rebound in U.S. initial public offerings next year, centering its base-case on near‑record aggregate proceeds of about $160 billion and roughly 120 listings. The bank warns that outcomes will be highly concentrated: a small number of ultra‑large private companies could account for the bulk of headline proceeds, leaving overall totals sensitive to the timing and pricing of a handful of megadeals. Goldman’s modeled envelope runs from roughly $80 billion on the downside to nearly $200 billion in an upside case, underscoring that a few large debuts will determine the cycle’s character. Sector composition is a key risk: software accounts for about a quarter of the known IPO backlog and recent valuation weakness in software equities highlights potential pricing and demand fragility. Early 2026 activity has been more pronounced at the smaller end — about a dozen firms have raised near $5 billion combined — and late‑stage private rounds (including a roughly $1 billion raise implying a ~$23 billion valuation for an AI chipmaker) are reshaping pre‑IPO capital structures. Complementary market signals from conferences and investor polls suggest that not all potential issuers will find an eager public market: participants in crypto and token-related spaces are showing heightened caution, citing limited secondary liquidity and the need for institutional‑grade custody, clearer token classification, and robust trading plumbing before they would pursue equity-like listings. That institutional-demand and regulatory backdrop could constrain contributions from token-era enterprises or crypto-linked firms even if headline IPO volumes look strong. For investment banks, a wave of large listings would restore underwriting fees and capital‑markets momentum that have been muted, but the concentration of proceeds implies more dispersion in post‑listing returns and amplified volatility in affected sectors. Policymakers and exchange operators may need to monitor allocation practices, custody and market‑structure readiness, and cross‑border regulatory differentials if multiple giant offerings or tokenized issuance streams cluster in time. Ultimately, Goldman’s projection signals a high‑stakes IPO cycle: there is material upside for dealmakers and public-market access to growth assets, but realization depends on the sequencing of major listings, sector valuation resilience, institutional market plumbing, and the absence of disruptive sentiment or regulatory shocks.