Crypto investors dial down IPO expectations for 2026

Investor sentiment among wealthy backers and sector leaders has turned noticeably more cautious about public listings in the crypto space for 2026, according to a structured poll of 242 respondents taken at the CfC St. Moritz gathering. After an active 2025 that produced multiple initial public offerings and sizable capital flows, attendees now point to limited liquidity and the prospect of consolidation as principal headwinds for more IPOs. Many respondents highlighted increasing participation from traditional financial institutions as a defining trend, with a sizable subset viewing that participation as competitive pressure that raises operational and compliance bars. Confidence in U.S. enforcement and rule clarity has improved materially within a year, while Gulf regulatory regimes—particularly the UAE—remain highly attractive for businesses seeking clarity and favorable conditions. Survey participants also linked evolving on-chain dynamics and product flows to the IPO outlook: a tightening Bitcoin on-chain supply picture and periodic inflows into U.S. spot-Bitcoin ETPs can support valuations but do not uniformly deepen secondary markets for new equity-like listings. Respondents singled out demand for institutional-grade custody, clearer token classification, and robust market plumbing—especially reliable secondary trading venues and high-quality custodial arrangements—as prerequisites for a sustainable IPO pipeline. The panel noted broader infrastructure shifts, including the growth of tokenized dollar rails, stablecoin-backed lending marketplaces, and derivatives activity migrating to new venues, all of which change how liquidity is sourced and measured. Macro policy direction from the Federal Reserve was flagged as a key swing factor: an easing cycle could restore risk appetite and lift multiples, while continued tightening would compress valuations across risk assets, including crypto issuers. For corporate issuers, the implication is straightforward: market timing, demonstrable path-to-liquidity, and institutional-grade governance now matter more than headline valuations. Venture investors and boards should expect longer timelines to public exits and an increased likelihood of M&A-driven consolidation for firms that cannot demonstrate deep secondary market access. Policymakers and exchange operators can take the survey as a mandate to accelerate institutional-grade plumbing, transparent standards and cross-border clarity if they want to sustain a public market pipeline. Overall, the mood at CfC St. Moritz has shifted from exuberance to selective appraisal—capital will flow to issuers that can marry product-market fit with credible liquidity and compliance roadmaps, and that recalibration will determine whether 2026 becomes a year of prudent market building or missed public-market opportunities for token-era enterprises.