
CSIS Report: Russia’s Campaign Inflicts Massive Casualties but Secures Minimal Ground
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China deepens backing for Russia’s Ukraine campaign, Western agencies warn
Western intelligence judges Beijing increased material and diplomatic support for Moscow across 2025 and that coordination is likely to broaden in 2026, but Beijing’s approach remains pragmatic and calibrated. The shift — centred on approvals, third‑party routing and financial layering — constrains European leverage, complicates sanctions enforcement and heightens the need for allied chokepoint controls and intelligence sharing.

Zelensky cites 55,000 military deaths as Abu Dhabi talks yield limited progress
President Volodymyr Zelensky told French television that Ukraine has lost 55,000 service members and authorities continue to register tens of thousands as missing; Abu Dhabi mediation produced a 314-person prisoner swap but left the core territorial dispute unresolved. A new assessment from the Center for Strategic and International Studies offers substantially different casualty totals and warns the conflict is imposing large human and economic costs while yielding limited Russian territorial gains, highlighting major uncertainties in wartime accounting and long-term strategy.

Russia's economy slides into structural depletion amid prolonged war
After five years of sustained military operations, Russia’s economy has shifted from resilience to prolonged attrition as policymakers prioritise the war effort over productive investment. A widening fiscal squeeze — driven by weaker crude receipts, reserve drawdowns, heavier borrowing and rising unit costs for equipment — compounds technology embargoes and demographic pressures, locking the economy into low growth unless there is a major policy or external shift.

Geneva Peace Talks Stall as Drone-and-Missile Barrage Underscores Deep Divide
U.S.-facilitated Geneva negotiations produced only limited, tactical outcomes — notably a 314-person prisoner swap — while Kyiv and Moscow remain deadlocked over territorial control and security guarantees. A major overnight aerial campaign (roughly 396–400 drones and an uncertain missile tally reported between 29 and 60) that damaged energy infrastructure and prompted rolling outages sharpened Kyiv’s insistence on enforceable protections.

Estonian intelligence warns Russia is using peace talks to advance war aims
Estonian foreign intelligence concludes Moscow’s recent conciliatory language toward negotiations is tactical and aimed at consolidating battlefield and political gains rather than signaling a genuine halt to operations. The assessment comes as a public split among senior Estonian officials over engagement strategy risks sending mixed signals to NATO partners and Moscow, complicating allied policy responses.
European capitals tighten scrutiny as Russian battlefield losses reshape recruitment tactics
European authorities are increasing investigative pressure on the channels that funnel recruits and manpower into Russia’s military effort, expanding tactics to include pressure on transport and financial service providers. By warning carriers, insurers and payment intermediaries and combining migration, banking and open-source casualty data, officials aim to raise the operational cost of moving fighters and funds while preserving legal protections for migrants.

Russian Strikes Expand to Odesa, Deepening Assault on Ukraine’s Power Grid
A fresh wave of Russian attacks struck Odesa, cutting into Ukraine’s energy network and signaling a broader campaign to degrade civilian infrastructure. The strikes complicate recovery efforts, raise humanitarian risks, and increase pressure on Ukraine’s defense and international partners to respond with additional air defenses and grid resilience support.

Putin’s war finances tighten as peace negotiations restart
Renewed negotiations are arriving at a moment when Moscow’s military spending outpaces available revenues, forcing short-term fixes that increase medium-term risk. How the Kremlin balances battlefield demands against domestic fiscal stability will determine both the scope of operations and leverage at the negotiating table.