CSIS Report: Russia’s Campaign Inflicts Massive Casualties but Secures Minimal Ground

A new Center for Strategic and International Studies assessment reframes the conflict as one of extraordinary human cost paired with negligible battlefield dividends for Moscow. The study estimates approximately 1.2 million Russian military personnel have been killed, wounded or are missing since the 2022 invasion, while Ukrainian total casualties are placed in the 500,000–600,000 range. Reported battlefield fatalities for Russia fall between roughly 275,000 and 325,000, compared with an estimated 100,000–140,000 Ukrainian deaths, producing a casualty ratio that the authors say favors Ukrainian defenders by roughly 2–2.5 to 1. Despite those losses, Russian advances on the front have been measured in yards per day, with cited local advances such as 16 yards daily at Chasiv Yar, 25 yards at Kupiansk and 76 yards at Pokrovsk. Over the last two years the assessment calculates that Russian forces captured under 1.5% of Ukrainian territory, and since 2022 overall controlled area under Moscow’s authority has edged up by about 12% from earlier lines. The study also highlights an acute recruitment problem: combat attrition now outpaces sustainable replacement, with outside observers reporting instances of roughly 1,000 Russian fatalities per day during intense periods. Economically, the conflict is reshaping Russia’s trajectory; declining manufacturing, constrained consumption, labor shortages and high inflation contributed to near-zero growth—about 0.6% in 2025—undermining long-term capital formation. Analysts warn that war-driven demand for munitions and fortifications boosts GDP in the short run but does little to build productive capacity for the future. Those combined military and economic pressures, the report suggests, limit Moscow’s ability to translate human sacrifice into strategic breakthroughs and increase the risk that the Kremlin will prolong fighting absent stronger external pressure. The authors conclude that without a material escalation in Western economic or military measures, the conflict is likely to continue at high cost and low territorial yield, with durable consequences for Russia’s global standing and domestic economy.