WMO alert: planet heat records and El Niño risk pressure infrastructure
Context and chronology
A World Meteorological Organization assessment documents a fresh global energy imbalance and unprecedented heat uptake in the upper ocean, reinforcing a multi-decade acceleration of stored planetary heat. The WMO links that accumulated energy to continued cryosphere decline, a run of the warmest consecutive years on record, and a higher baseline for extreme events that already impose operational strains on infrastructure networks. Forecasters now see an elevated chance of a warm ENSO phase in the latter half of 2026; NOAA’s operational outlook places the probability of El Niño consolidation at roughly 50–60% for July–September 2026, reinforcing the near-term risk window identified by the WMO.
Ocean observations show the upper 2 km reached record heat levels in the latest year, with roughly 90% of excess planetary heat sequestered by the oceans. That stored heat amplifies the energy available to tropical systems, extends heatwave persistence over continental interiors, and reduces available water for hydropower in sensitive basins — a compound set of pressures that can converge on energy, transport and coastal systems within months. Practically, systems will face higher peak cooling loads, greater volatility in hydro-dependent generation, and larger tail risks for storm-related coastal damage.
New operational tools are emerging alongside these physical signals. NOAA and academic teams are piloting the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), which subtracts basin-scale warming to highlight localized Niño-domain departures; early testing suggests RONI can reveal event onset and teleconnection strength more cleanly than Niño3.4 in a rapidly warming background. However, RONI is not yet fully validated across models and extremes, so early adoption could produce mismatches between agencies and historical comparisons while it proves out.
For decision-makers the combined message is actionable: use the elevated probabilistic outlook and RONI-derived scenarios to run basin-scale stress tests that pair simultaneous hydro deficits with peak cooling demand, secure short-term capacity and fuel corridors, and coordinate claims-exposure planning with insurers. Absent rapid contingency measures, the next 12–24 months carry an outsized chance of clustered operational failures, spot-market price shocks and urgent adaptation spending.
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