Market snapshot — converging legal, policy and liquidity forces

Bitcoin remained range‑bound in the session following a US Supreme Court decision that narrowed presidential tariff powers, a development traders said could prompt debate over retrospective refunds and fiscal knock‑on effects.

Technically, attention clustered around $67,000 with an explicit short‑term band between $65,000 and $72,000. Market participants noted the 200‑week exponential moving average as a decisive structural pivot: a sustained close beneath it would likely accelerate selling pressure, while reclaiming it would relieve downside tension.

Macro prints added to the complexity. Core PCE measures surprised to the upside at roughly 3%, while late Q4 growth underwhelmed near 1.4%, combining to curtail expectations for an early Fed cut and driving market‑implied odds of a March 25bp reduction down to the mid single digits.

On the legal front, the court’s limitation of emergency tariff authority revived discussion about potential retrospective refunds; some commentators have sized that exposure in the low hundreds of billions (circa $150B), a figure that would carry meaningful fiscal and market implications if pursued.

Market microstructure and flows amplified the backdrop. Spot ETF flows have been episodically negative in recent months (estimates of roughly $4.4B of outflows over a multi‑week window), while derivatives venues recorded concentrated long liquidations in recent stress episodes (reported intraday reads around $750M). Dealers also flagged elevated funding rates and middling implied volatility—roughly a 2% one‑day expected swing—signalling that directional exposures remain in place and could magnify moves if macro cues shift.

Separately, prediction‑market activity has shifted sentiment; concentrated wagers on platforms such as Polymarket have lifted implied odds of deeper year‑end downside, offering a near‑real‑time gauge of trader psychology that diverges from some longer‑term institutional forecasts.

Despite headline legal and macro developments, risk assets moved modestly overall: select equities and crypto pairs saw muted gains while Bitcoin itself traded within the defined range, reflecting cautious positioning rather than a conviction breakout.

Traders described a defensive stance across social and trading desks: some plan to accumulate on clear technical weakness, others warned that downside remains the path of least resistance until price convincingly reclaims structural technicals and macro policy signals turn more dovish.

Strategists emphasised that looser financial conditions still provide a latent tailwind for risk assets, but the combination of stickier inflation and legal uncertainty increases the odds of episodic volatility rather than a sustained trend higher.

Key near‑term triggers include weekly closes relative to the 200‑week EMA, any official guidance or legislative action regarding tariff restitution, ETF flow prints and the next sequence of US macro releases and Fed communications that will reprice rate‑cut expectations.

• Watch levels: $65K — $72K.
• Policy signal: March Fed cut odds materially reduced.
• Liquidity metrics: recent spot ETF outflows (~$4.4B) and concentrated long liquidations (~$750M) heighten vulnerability to sharp moves.