Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee Says Rate Cuts Depend on Clearer Drop in Inflation
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Fed Governor Lisa Cook Signals Patience on Rate Cuts, Cites Labor and Inflation Dynamics
Fed Governor Lisa Cook said policy is only modestly tighter than neutral and urged patience before further rate cuts, arguing that recent quarter‑point moves are already easing financial conditions and that some price pressure tied to tariffs is likely temporary. Her remarks—echoing a broader pattern among major central banks of data‑dependent, conditional guidance—underline that the timing of cuts will hinge on clearer disinflation and softer labor‑market readings.
Shift in Fed voting roster reduces odds of deep rate cuts despite White House pressure
A refreshed set of regional Fed presidents joining the rate-setting roster this year raises the bar for aggressive easing even as the White House signals a desire for faster cuts. With inflation still above target and several new voters publicly cautious, the Fed is likely to resist large reductions in its policy rate.
Federal Reserve Keeps Benchmark Rate at 3.50%–3.75% as Inflation Remains Sticky and Jobs Show Mixed Signals
The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.50%–3.75%, signaling a data-dependent pause as core inflation stays above target and labor-market readings soften; two governors dissented for an immediate 25 bps cut. Policymakers also face a shifting committee composition and governance timeline that narrow the path to rapid easing, while markets have pushed expected initial cuts later into the summer.
UK inflation eases to 3.0%, lifting odds of March BoE rate cut
Headline consumer inflation slowed to 3.0% year‑on‑year in January, down from 3.4% in December and marginally above the Bank of England’s 2.9% projection. Combined with signs of weakening in the labour market — higher unemployment and softer private‑sector pay growth — the print increases the probability of a near‑term Bank Rate reduction, though officials remain explicitly data‑dependent.
Hungary Pauses Rate Cut as Fresh Inflation Figures Cloud Outlook
Hungary's central bank opted not to lower interest rates after new inflation readings undermined confidence in a safe easing window. The decision keeps monetary policy tighter for now and raises questions about timing for future cuts and the implications for markets and growth.
State Street Strategist Sees Roughly 10% Dollar Drop if Fed Delivers Deeper Cuts
A senior strategist at State Street warns the U.S. dollar could weaken about 10% over the year if the Federal Reserve eases policy more than markets currently expect, with an extra 25bp cut in 2026 widening downside risk. That outlook sits alongside political signals favoring a softer dollar, uncertainty around Fed leadership and faster‑moving high‑frequency inflation gauges—factors that together could prompt a reassessment of hedges and duration positioning.
Bank of England likely to keep Bank Rate steady as inflation proves sticky
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is widely expected to leave the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% in its first meeting of the year as mixed signals — persistent inflation but signs of a cooling labour market — warrant a cautious, data-dependent pause. Markets have already trimmed the odds of near-term moves and will focus on the committee’s language and the accompanying quarterly projections for guidance on the timing of any easing.
Bundesbank warns US Fed's loss of independence could fuel global inflation
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned that political encroachment on the U.S. Federal Reserve could set a precedent prompting other governments to press their central banks toward easier policy, raising inflationary risks worldwide. He said Europe’s monetary framework is legally robust but not immune to spillovers from a shift in U.S. central bank behaviour, and noted that recent public commentary from U.S. officials and fiscal pressures make the credibility challenge more acute.