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A cluster of high-level visits and new bilateral pacts — including the UK prime minister’s business-led trip to Beijing, an upgraded EU‑Vietnam strategic partnership and a broad EU‑India trade agreement — coincide with tactical tariff easings and market‑access measures that lower near‑term barriers for Chinese exporters. The moves create commercial space Beijing can exploit while core strategic frictions over technology, subsidies and supply‑chain dependence remain active and likely to reappear in future negotiations.
Recent signals from Beijing tie an intensified political consolidation at the top to an uncompromising approach toward Taiwan, implying internal purges are being used to clear obstacles rather than slow external ambitions. The move raises policy and security risks across the Indo-Pacific by increasing the probability of coercive pressure and miscalculation.

President Trump said he is discussing possible arms transfers for Taiwan with Xi Jinping and expects to decide soon, a move that could shift U.S. defense posture in the Taiwan Strait and elevate diplomatic tensions. Separately, Taipei’s defense minister says Washington has agreed to accelerate delivery timetables for already‑approved weaponry, compressing operational timelines and raising political, fiscal and supply‑chain pressures.

Washington and Taipei agreed to a trade deal that cuts tariffs, expands market access for U.S. goods and binds Taiwan to over $44 billion in purchases of U.S. LNG and crude. Implementation — through memoranda, procurement timetables, verification and domestic approvals — will determine whether headline commitments translate into sustained shipments, investment and measurable geopolitical effects.

At the Munich Security Conference, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi pitched deeper China–EU engagement and urged avoidance of bloc confrontation while US envoy Marco Rubio countered with a conditional reassurance of transatlantic partnership, pressing for measurable reciprocation on trade and defence. Their exchange — plus constructive bilateral talks — crystallised competing narratives in Europe about economic opportunity versus strategic vulnerability ahead of an anticipated China–US presidential meeting this spring.

Following direct discussions between the UK prime minister and China's leadership, Beijing has rescinded prior travel bans affecting UK lawmakers, reopening the door for parliamentary visits. London says it will not reciprocate by lifting restrictions on Chinese officials, and some of the affected MPs and peers publicly oppose any deal that trades their status for concessions on human-rights sanctions.
A rift has opened among Estonia’s political leaders over whether European governments should pursue talks with Vladimir Putin, exposing divergent strategic instincts within the country’s governing circles. The disagreement comes at a moment of wider trans‑Atlantic strain over credibility and capacity, raising the stakes of Tallinn’s internal division for EU and NATO cohesion.

Madrid has adopted a new Asia policy that prioritizes deeper political and economic engagement with Beijing over the next three years. The plan also urges closer coordination with other European capitals while reacting to growing friction in transatlantic ties.