Roskomnadzor begins throttling Telegram traffic amid new curbs

Russia’s telecom regulator has started implementing technical measures designed to degrade connections to the Telegram messaging platform, with a further escalation scheduled to begin on the near-term timeline. Local reporting indicates the initial phase is already active and that more formal limitations are slated to roll out shortly. The action appears to rely on network-level interference — throttling and traffic shaping — rather than an immediate outright ban, which changes the risk calculus for both users and operators. For Telegram, intermittent slowdowns raise operational and reputational risks in a market where it has been widely adopted; for ISPs and backbone providers, the technical burden is increased as they must apply filtering and rate-limiting policies that can affect broader traffic patterns. From a regulatory perspective, this step underscores an enforcement approach focused on degrading service quality as leverage, rather than immediate legal or criminal actions. That approach can complicate mitigation: users may seek VPNs and other circumvention tools, shifting traffic to encrypted tunnels that are harder for authorities to distinguish and control. The timing and implementation detail remain opaque, which adds uncertainty for enterprises and developers relying on stable messaging APIs for notifications and customer engagement. International observers should note that throttling strategies can be more disruptive to third-party services that depend on predictable latency and throughput, potentially harming e-commerce, news distribution, and real-time collaboration tools. Economically, protracted interference can push activity to alternative platforms or offshore providers, increasing operational costs for businesses that must adapt. The move also carries political signaling: it conveys willingness by regulators to exert pressure on popular encrypted communications when deemed necessary. In the near term, expect user complaints, a spike in the use of circumvention technologies, and operational adjustments by app operators who will monitor delivery metrics closely. Longer-term effects depend on whether the regulator maintains a pattern of intermittent throttling or escalates to sustained blocking; each path has different technical, economic, and social consequences. Observers should track changes in latency, message delivery failure rates, and VPN adoption as early indicators of impact.