Equifax lifts 2026 profit outlook after mortgage business fuels quarterly beat

Equifax reported quarterly performance that topped analyst projections and used the momentum to raise its full-year outlook, with management pointing to a rebound in mortgage-related activity as the principal driver. The company recorded adjusted earnings per share and total revenue that modestly outperformed market expectations, while U.S. mortgage revenue surged materially year-over-year. In setting its 2026 targets Equifax presented a revenue range that sits above consensus, and the guidance embeds a conservative assumption about mortgage market volume for the year ahead. Executives signaled they modeled a near-term weakness in mortgage originations relative to 2025, yet also highlighted an internal scenario in which competitors’ pricing moves could accelerate customer migration. That migration is at the center of a strategic pivot: Equifax intends to scale its VantageScore mortgage offerings to capture lenders shifting away from incumbent scoring arrangements. The move is a direct commercial response to a rival scoring vendor’s recent plan to sell scores directly to mortgage lenders, a development that changes distribution economics in the market. Equifax’s management argues that wider VantageScore adoption would both lower end-user costs and expand company margins as product mix shifts. Investors reacted modestly in early trading, reflecting recognition of both the upside in mortgage momentum and the uncertainty of competitive dynamics. For lenders, recovering loan demand is already prompting heavier use of credit and risk-assessment services, which supports Equifax’s revenue thesis. The company’s guidance therefore functions as both a forecast and a strategic signal: it assumes some near-term mortgage softness while outlining how product-led pricing and market share gains could improve profitability. Near-term risks include tightened lender economics if competitors successfully bypass data providers, and slower-than-expected conversion to alternate scoring models; the primary upside is faster margin expansion if VantageScore adoption accelerates. Overall, the quarter validates Equifax’s positioning in cyclical mortgage flows but also highlights an active competitive reshaping of mortgage score distribution that will determine whether the guidance proves conservative or dated.