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Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn warns Bitcoin lacks clear near‑term catalysts and may revisit a supply gap near $70,000 before testing the realized‑price zone around $56,000, where prior cycles found durable support. Compounding the technical picture, shallow displayed liquidity, concentrated sell interest, and episodic ETF outflows — alongside stalled U.S. market‑structure legislation — leave downside risks elevated until on‑chain accumulation or policy clarity returns.
Benchmark argues Galaxy Digital’s recent stock decline overstates near-term pain and understates two strategic drivers: prospective U.S. crypto market-structure legislation and the company’s Helios AI data-center campus in Texas. The firm keeps a buy rating with a $57 target (about 170% above recent trading), while Galaxy has publicly rejected social-media narratives that a roughly $9 billion single-client Bitcoin liquidation reflected sectorwide panic tied to quantum fears. Benchmark also highlights liquidity, a $1.8B loan book, and an expected revenue stream from CoreWeave this year as stabilizers.

Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz told a New York finance forum that crypto markets are shifting from retail-led, high‑leverage speculation to steadier institutional participation and practical blockchain use cases. Observers point to shocks like the FTX collapse and an early-October leverage unwind as accelerants, while evolving on‑chain supply dynamics, spot‑ETF flows, and regulatory initiatives will shape how quickly institutionalization deepens.
BTQ Technologies launched a Bitcoin-like testnet on Jan. 12, 2026 that swaps Bitcoin’s elliptic-curve signatures for a NIST-standardized module-lattice scheme to measure operational impacts. The experiment highlights concentrated long-term risk where public keys are already visible onchain and underscores that any real-world migration will be constrained by blockspace, bandwidth and coordination trade-offs.

BlackRock’s head of digital assets, Robert Mitchnick, said concentrated leverage in derivatives — notably perpetual futures and options — is producing outsized short-term swings that could undermine bitcoin’s appeal to conservative institutional allocators. While IBIT saw only 0.2% weekly redemptions, recent market episodes show large options volumes, sizable same‑day ETF outflows and reduced on‑exchange stablecoin depth that together magnify liquidation cascades.

Crypto strategist Arthur Hayes warns that widening divergence between Bitcoin and tech equities may presage a credit squeeze if AI-driven white‑collar layoffs accelerate; he models a scenario that could inflict roughly $557 billion of consumer and mortgage losses and prompt renewed central‑bank liquidity, a policy pivot he believes would support crypto prices. Institutional research from banks and market participants — including stress scenarios from UBS and cautionary analysis from HSBC — provides complementary channels by which concentrated AI capex and rapid repricing could amplify losses in private and public credit markets.

A procedural step in a Senate committee tied to federal crypto legislation set off a sharp market reaction, knocking Bitcoin from near $90,000 to about $84,000 and pulling major altcoins lower. The move came amid thin liquidity, recent ETF outflows and other geopolitical and policy noise that likely amplified liquidations and algorithmic selling.
A sharp weekend sell-off pushed bitcoin from its October highs to about $77,000, erasing roughly $800 billion in market value and triggering roughly $2.5 billion in liquidations within 24 hours. Major exchanges signaled coordinated support — including a pledge by Binance to convert stablecoin reserves to bitcoin and to replenish its user-protection fund up to a $1 billion target — even as spot ETF outflows and a retreat in stablecoin balances reduced the on-exchange dollar liquidity that usually cushions shocks.