Intel warns memory shortage will persist through 2028

Intel’s chief executive told investors to expect tight memory markets extending into 2028, framing the shortage as a multi‑year structural problem rather than a near‑term disruption. That timeline adds urgency to an industry already reconfiguring supply by prioritizing high‑value AI and server segments: large suppliers have begun reallocating wafer starts toward high‑performance DRAM variants and HBM, narrowing availability for commodity DRAM and high‑capacity NAND used in consumer SSDs and midrange GPUs. Retail RAM saw sharp markups late last year and SSD prices have also ticked up; now graphics card makers are reportedly shrinking or pausing certain models to divert scarce memory to higher‑margin SKUs. Samsung and SK Hynix have signaled strategic shifts in their product roadmaps, including accelerated qualification and targeted capacity for AI‑optimized memory — Samsung is reported to be nearing technical sign‑off on next‑generation HBM4 — which reinforces the imbalance between supply and the broad base of downstream demand. Hyperscalers and large cloud customers, with long contracts and qualification influence, stand to extract more favorable allocations but still face longer lead times and higher input costs. For OEMs, smaller system builders and retail channels, the combined effect is prolonged procurement complexity, elevated component pricing, and the need to prioritize which end‑markets to serve. The shortage outlook means memory vendors retain pricing leverage for longer, while customers must rethink product roadmaps, refresh cycles and capital plans. Policymakers and industrial planners weighing incentives for domestic capacity should note that fab build‑outs, especially for advanced memory and packaging, require sustained investment and years to materialize. For Intel, the public projection helps set partner and investor expectations while highlighting how memory bottlenecks ripple into server, client and cloud businesses. Market participants should prepare for drawn‑out cyclical volatility, allocation‑driven product mixes, and potential consolidation as barriers rise for smaller suppliers and integrators.