U.S. markets start trading amid Musk’s SpaceX–xAI merger, Palantir beat, and a U.S.–India trade turn

Trading opened under an uneven mix of large strategic corporate developments and policy headlines that pushed asset re‑weighting across regions. At the center are early, non‑binding discussions to structurally combine xAI with SpaceX — a configuration that could steer xAI’s path to the public markets toward an aviation‑linked vehicle rather than a standalone IPO — and reporting of about $20 billion in private financing for xAI that includes an estimated ~$2 billion commitment from Tesla and other partners. Separately, multiple reports say SpaceX is preparing for a large IPO targeted around mid‑June 2026, with reported fundraising aims in the tens of billions to fund Starship, Starlink scale‑up and experiments with hosting compute in orbit. SpaceX filings and outreach framing satellites as potential active compute nodes have heightened investor interest, though engineers and observers point to major challenges — from radiation‑hardening and vacuum heat rejection to launch cadence and operations — that will govern technical feasibility and timing. The proposed structural tie‑up between a capital‑intensive aerospace operator and a fast‑moving AI developer raises obvious governance and valuation questions: allocating equity, preserving scientific independence, guarding against cross‑subsidy and designing transparency for any blended capital plan will shape deal structure and disclosure. Palantir’s fourth quarter beat — revenue and adjusted EPS that topped consensus — reinforced strength in government contracting and expanding commercial engagement; the stock jumped in premarket trade, but ongoing scrutiny of some deployments tied to DHS and ICE suggests potential procurement friction and reputational costs. On trade, reporting of a reciprocal U.S.–India tariff adjustment (reported 25% → 18%) and headline procurement commitments prompted a sharp re‑rating of India‑exposed assets: senior officials and market sources described headline procurement figures in the roughly $500 billion range across energy, technology, agriculture and industrial categories, and India’s benchmark index jumped roughly 5% on the news. Market reaction underscored that implementation questions — customs changes, verification mechanisms, quota and scheduling details — will determine whether headline promises convert into durable order flows. Asia equities were mixed overall, with gains concentrated in India and parts of ASEAN while other bourses softened on lingering risk aversion and local news. Precious metals staged rebounds as investors rotated into hard assets amid headline volatility, and crypto flows reflected technical liquidations and ETF outflows. The partial U.S. government shutdown pushed the monthly jobs release off the calendar, leaving a temporary data gap that amplifies sensitivity to alternative labor and activity indicators. Anecdotes from China’s weak consumer backdrop — widely referenced by traders — contrasted with retail‑sector metrics in some markets showing fewer store closures and signs of stabilization in physical retail. Together, these developments create asymmetric pressures: concentrated strategic and defense‑tech names tied to consolidation and public‑sector demand may outperform in the near term, while policy uncertainty, implementation risk and soft global consumption keep cyclicals and commodity‑exposed sectors vulnerable. Investors should watch filings and financing disclosures tied to the SpaceX–xAI discussions, monitor Palantir’s contract pipeline and any oversight developments, seek specificity on U.S.–India implementation timelines and verification, and expect heightened headline sensitivity while the employment‑data gap persists.