Rivalry Between Saudi Arabia and the UAE Shifts to Sudan’s Gold Trade

Political competition for leverage in East Africa has moved beyond diplomacy into commodity channels, with Sudanese gold emerging as a tangible instrument of influence for Saudi and Emirati actors. Wealthy Gulf investors and affiliated trading networks are reportedly steering shipments, purchase decisions and financing to build commercial ties and strategic footholds inside Sudan. That commercial jockeying has changed how gold moves—favoring opaque routes, faster turnover through intermediaries and tighter use of private logistics and escrow-like arrangements—raising red flags for banks, insurers and Western regulators. The broader diplomatic chill between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi has already begun to show up in corporate behaviour across the Gulf: joint ventures are paused more often, project timelines are delayed, and correspondent banks and insurers are repricing or restricting exposures tied to politically sensitive counterparties. Freight-forwarders and ports processing Sudanese consignments report more rerouting and paperwork as clients hedge against potential regulatory or reputational fallout. For Sudan, these flows supply urgently needed foreign-exchange liquidity amid an economic crisis, but they also elevate the stakes for local armed groups and nonstate actors that control supply lines. The contest increases the risk that revenues will be diverted into informal channels or used to underwrite local power brokers, complicating any future governance or stabilization efforts. Global bullion prices may remain broadly stable, but premiums, access to reputable refiners and the cost or availability of shipping insurance are already being affected. Traders and financial intermediaries face heavier due diligence demands—longer transaction cycles, higher transaction costs and a growing incentive to insert more robust audit trails and escrow mechanisms. Over the medium term, persistent pressure from insurers, banks and Western compliance units could force partial formalization of some flows or push trade into alternative corridors, with winners determined as much by regulatory tolerance as by commercial muscle. Observers should watch routing shifts, changes in the mix of refiners and insurers involved, and any spillovers into energy and infrastructure financing as signs of escalation or broader economic friction across the Gulf.