ADNOC Chief Says Global Oil Demand Will Stay Above 100 Million BPD Through 2040, Urges Broad Energy Investment

At a major energy forum, the head of Abu Dhabi's national oil company presented a long-term outlook that keeps liquid fuel demand above 100 million barrels per day out to 2040 and stresses the need for simultaneous investment across fossil fuels, power systems, and new infrastructure. He argued that electrification trends — amplified by artificial intelligence, exponential data center build-outs, and rising cooling loads — will sharply increase demand for electricity and for gas used as a bridge fuel and feedstock. The executive reiterated a previously cited annual capital requirement in the trillions to upgrade grids, expand data center capacity, and expand supply across energy vectors. His remarks framed underinvestment, not excess capacity, as the systemic risk that could disrupt markets and slow growth. The speech linked three structural forces shaping demand: economic expansion in emerging economies, the AI-driven expansion of digital infrastructure, and broad energy-system transformation. India was singled out as a focal point where these forces converge, reinforced by a sizable decade-long LNG supply arrangement signed with Abu Dhabi. The deal with India was identified as one of the larger bilateral energy contracts recently, underscoring the UAE's strategic role in meeting Asian demand. Market participants should read this as a signal that major oil producers expect persistent hydrocarbon demand even as they back investments in power and gas value chains. For investors and policymakers, the key implication is a widening investment horizon that crosses traditional industry boundaries and requires coordinated capital planning. For climate strategists, the assessment complicates decarbonization pathways by implying extended reliance on oil and a major expansion of electricity generation capacity that must be progressively cleaner. Operationally, the forecast increases the urgency for long-lead projects: upstream capacity additions, LNG supply chains, transmission upgrades, and grid resilience measures. The executive's framing also functions as a policy nudge to regulators and financiers to lower barriers to project approval and to mobilize institutional capital. Absent that scaling, supply shortfalls or price volatility could materialize even as demand shifts in composition. The remarks therefore matter for commodity markets, national energy strategies, infrastructure financiers, and corporate planners shaping asset portfolios for the next two decades.